Development of e-mobility
The so-called E-Mobility Ranking, which is published once a year by the consultancy Berylls, has no major surprises in store in its latest edition. The considerable challenges posed to the national economies by the pandemic did not result in any drastic changes in the e-mobility figures.
And the year 2022, to which the ranking refers, continued to be marked by supply problems, sometimes extremely high energy costs, especially in Europe, and galloping inflation as a result of the war in Ukraine. But even these developments hardly affected the figures published by Berylls.
For the majority of the countries surveyed, there were no or only minor changes in the ranking. In terms of the share of e-cars in the existing fleet, the Scandinavian countries are still at the top with 3 percent and more. With 3 percent, China is at about the same level as Sweden, followed by Central and Western European countries with a share of between one and two percent (Germany and France). The USA, on the other hand, follows at an enormously large distance and thus occupies one of the last places. Of the total e-car fleet in the USA, one third is attributable to registrations in the last year alone. In China, the figure is as high as 40 percent.
2022 Breakthrough in new registrations
A relatively low number of electric cars contrasts with a high number of new registrations. This was shown by the evaluation for the year 2022, which in this respect can be described as the year of the breakthrough to electric mobility. According to this, in China as well as in Western and Northern Europe, an average of 20 percent of all cars sold were battery-powered - that is every fifth car, while in the USA only every 16th car sold is an electric car.
Nevertheless, the balance for 2022 is rather mixed: the high registration rates were offset by extreme delivery difficulties, so that absolute sales figures reached a new low, at least in Europe, and were around 29 percent below those of 2019. Against this backdrop, the growth that new e-car sales experienced in 2022, similar to previous years, was substantial, with double-digit growth rates in many countries. In contrast to pure electric cars, registration figures for plug-in hybrids have fallen. This is at least partly due to the fact that subsidies have expired.
Another positive aspect is the infrastructure: According to Berylls' analysis, the number of charging and fast-charging stations in public spaces increased significantly in most of the countries surveyed last year, in some cases with growth rates of over 40 percent. This is particularly true for China, where the number of electric cars and charging stations is balanced. However, the figures should be treated with caution, as at least the direct current (DC) fast charging stations in China are not infrequently located in inconvenient places due to a lack of proper planning and often have a low output (usually less than 60 kW).
A different picture emerges in the Scandinavian countries, where the expansion of the infrastructure cannot keep pace with that of the electric car fleets. However, this disproportion can be explained by a Scandinavian peculiarity: in contrast to the countries of Central and Western Europe (Germany and France), which are predominantly characterised by conurbations, a disproportionately large number of Scandinavian households have private charging points. Accordingly, they are only dependent on public infrastructure to a lesser extent. Germany and France, on the other hand, had invested heavily in the expansion of the charging infrastructure.
Scandinavian new e-registrations soon at 100 percent
Norway leads the Scandinavian countries, closely followed by Sweden and Denmark, Iceland and Finland: In all these countries, the share of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) in total new registrations already exceeded the 30 percent mark in the first quarter of 2023. According to Alexander Timmers, partner at Berylls Strategy Advisors, the Nordic countries are well on their way to a 100 percent share of BEVs: a quota of more than 80 percent can be expected as early as 2030.
The three large Western European countries follow the North at some distance, but always with a forward-looking course. According to the experts at Berylls, France, Germany and Great Britain can expect BEVs to account for between 15 and 20 percent of new registrations in the current year. By 2030, they expect an electric car quota of between 60 and 70 percent for the three countries.
German government's course on e-mobility unchanged
In response to a small question from the CDU/CSU parliamentary group on the topic of electromobility and charging infrastructure, the Federal Government has announced that it will stick to its stated goals. These include the planned million public charging points in Germany. Another declared goal concerned the 15 million e-cars registered in Germany by 2030.
In addition to the more than 2 million electric cars currently already registered, more than 1.1 million had a purely battery-electric drive, with an upward trend. As current examples, a rate of 17.3 percent was given for May 2023, which refers to the share of pure BEVs in new registrations. Compared to the number of newly registered passenger cars with pure battery drive in May 2022, this would correspond to an increase of 46.6 percent.
In order to further accelerate the expansion of the share of BEVs in the total number of passenger cars, the federal government is relying on various funding measures. One of these is a so-called environmental bonus, which is degressive over time, another is the electromobility funding guideline. On the one hand, the increasing share of BEVs in the total vehicle population can be observed on the market; on the other hand, their additional costs are decreasing in comparison to combustion engines.
An essential prerequisite for the promotion of electromobility is also the availability of an extensive and equally user-friendly charging infrastructure. In this context, it is not only important to promote the expansion of a sufficient number of charging stations, but also to pay attention to the respective charging capacity.
Below are some numerical examples of the publicly accessible charging points reported to the Federal Network Agency from the Federal Government's response: 59,660 charging points on 01.01.2022, 82,351 charging points on 01.01.2023 and 85,073 charging points on 01.03.2023. On the latter date, there would also be a lack of publicly accessible charging infrastructure in 5750 cities and municipalities, and fast charging infrastructure in around 3000 other municipalities.
Regarding the subsidies, the Federal Government provided the following information: 2.2 billion euros had been earmarked for the purchase of climate-friendly commercial vehicles within the framework of the Climate and Transformation Fund until 2026, of which approx. 1 billion had been paid out by 31 May 2023, of which 43.9 million euros had in turn been paid out by this date.
China and USA on growth track, Southern Europe lags behind
As for China, Berylls still expects the numbers to rise (an electric car quota of between 20 and 25 percent), although growth will be more restrained than previously expected. By 2030, Timmer predicts a BEV new registration share of 75 percent for the country.
And in the USA, too – after a long dry spell, from which only California was exempt – a noticeably positive development can be expected. The drivers are, on the one hand, the necessary adjustment to the big rival in Asia and, on the other hand, the so-called Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). However, this is still hardly visible in the concrete figures: The number of newly registered electric cars in the current year is still in the single digits. For 2030, on the other hand, the share of BEVs is expected to be between 40 and 50 percent.
In view of these overall positive trends, the development of e-mobility in Southern Europe is still lagging far behind. In the two most important countries, Italy and Spain, there is no change of course in sight in 2023.
Sources: ecomento.de, 04.07.2023 and ecomento.de, 05.07.2023
Image: Paul Brennan at Pixabay
